Monday, June 27, 2016

Hamilton's Blessing - John Steele Gordon (Walker and Co., 1997)

Ostensibly, a history of the national debt; unfortunately, the narrative devolves into a diatribe against an economic straw man and into an extended speculation about a flat tax.  A promising start that loses sight of its worthy goal. 
[336.340973]

This book begins as a needed history of the National debt.  The first half of the book explains what benefits the national debt provides and, with less detail, why it was part of Alexander Hamilton's fiscal plan for the new nation.  The author particularly likes to focus on individual incidents such as the compromise that set the capitol in Washington, DC and the assumption of many states' Revolutionary War debts.  The book then addresses the general problem of financing the young United States.  That brings in topics such as our first two central banks, the First, and Second, Bank of the United States, the difficulties caused by a taxation system reliant almost exclusively on customs duties, and the costs of Jackson's Specie Circular.  The selling of the government's debt during the Civil War and the currency adjustments in the post-War period are also well-written.   

As it shifts to the beginning of the 20th century, the narrative drifts far from an analysis of the debt.  The author discusses the income tax amendment and invests some effort in covering the differences between the corporate and personal income taxes.  Although this is an interesting topic, it is a digression from the main subject and, even worse for the book, becomes a springboard for the author to go in a new direction.  No real rational for an income tax is presented; the author doesn't acknowledge that the gathering momentum of the Prohibition movement will mean that the government will need an alternative to the alcohol excise taxes that helped fund the government.  Instead, the author becomes fixated on thinking of the graduated tax as an experiment in social engineering.  Forward from that point, questions about the debt fall to a secondary topic. 

Much of the last section of the book becomes an extended critique of Keynesian economics.  The usefulness of any observations is thrown away, however, because the author focuses on a caricature of Keynes' thought.  It is treated as a policy spending and borrowing no matter what the economic situation.   (The bibliography reveals that the author has consulted some free market economists who are unlikely to give an unbiased critique of Keynes.)  The rest is a description of the benefits of the Flat Tax, particularly as a means of avoiding what the author refers to as "social engineering" or using the tax code for progressive taxation as a means of combatting income inequality.

This book advertises itself as a history of the national debt.  In truth, with its forays into central banking and a central government with the ability to tax, it summarizes more of Hamilton's design for the United States than just the debt.  The entire plan may be Hamilton's Blessing.  If only the author had maintained focus.

The first half of the book is recommended as a useful summary.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine - Michael Lewis (W W Norton, 2010)

An engaging story of the challenges facing a few individuals who bet against common wisdom  to profit on the 2007-8 housing market collapse. [330.973]

One path to good storytelling when dealing with complex issues is to report from the point of view and actions of someone involved in the events.  This doesn't necessarily make the event itself any clearer; instead it trusts that the reader may appreciate the challenges the protagonists face and it conveys a feeling about the events.  This look at the financial implications of the housing market collapse in 2008 attempts to explain events by following three hedge funds and a banker as they try to make sense of what appears to them to be an asset bubble and to find a way to take the opposite side of the trade.  It takes great self-confidence, or foolhardiness, to take a short position when the world is convinced prices can only move upward.

The uninitiated reader is unlikely to come away from this book with a clear understanding of derivatives trading, credit default swaps, or collateralized debt obligations, but this book is not intended as a CFA textbook on derivatives.  In fact, this book should be read alongside Gillian Tett's book Fool's Gold to really understand how such a market developed.  The pair of books gives a richer context to the trading.

Michael Lewis is, nonetheless, a talented writer.  The traders and bankers he describes are complex personalities.  They are not heroic; they see an opportunity to make money and have to develop a way to exploit the situation.  They have to keep their financial backers and investors behind them while the action they propose violates accepted wisdom.  They have to abandon any faith in the leading names in the financial community.  Once events begin to run their way, they have to decide how long to hold the trade before it becomes worthless.  Here is Lewis' talent: giving the reader a sense of the inner workings of these people.

We are still living with the results of the crisis.  It still plays a role in the political campaigns this year because it has affected how we interpret the work of Wall Street, the government, and the markets in a broad sense.  This book is still timely even as it describes events that are a decade ago.

(NB.  The movie of the same name is equally enjoyable and should be watched in conjunction with Margin Call to see both sides of the story, but it has fictionalized some parts of the story and simplified other parts.)

This book is recommended although with the suggestion that the experience improves if one takes time to learn more about the derivatives and the securities discussed.