Showing posts with label Financial fraud. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Financial fraud. Show all posts

Saturday, September 29, 2018

The Go-Go Years - John Brooks (Weybright & Talley, 1973)

An episodic history of the equities markets during the decade of the 1960s to show how the market transformed from a gentleman's club to a national market.  [332.64273]  

The decade of the 1960s on Wall Street is likely remembered as a period characterized by a steadily rising stock market.  Fifty years on, not much else may survive in the details, but it might be thought of as a bland and safe age compared to the crashes of 1929, 1987, the dot-com era, or 2008.  This stands in sharp contrast to the sense of social upheaval in the United States during the same decade.  This book offers evidence that the 60s were certainly not bland nor was the market on a steady upward path throughout the period.

Brooks' central theme is that the decade saw the final transition of Wall Street from a private gentleman's club to a national financial market.  The story is told through a series of individual biographies of characters who stood for their brief moment on the financial stage with the collection bracketed by the record one-day loss of H Ross Perot in his losses from a sharp drop in EDS.

Here are the stories of the American Stock Exchange trying to right itself and avoid the scandal of corruption among its leaders, of Eddie Gilbert gambling desperately to finance continuing acquisitions of competitive flooring firms, and of a somnolent SEC and a major insider trading scandal among the directors of Texas Gulf Sulfur.  As these events are sweeping out the old, slow ways of the Street, a new generation of fund managers is coming to the fore.  These are the Gunslingers: mutual fund managers who took heavily concentrated positions and moved in and out of investments rapidly to show "performance."  There were also the new conglomerates.  These were collections of companies created by mergers and acquisitions across multiple industries.  It was argued that there was some mystic synergy that made sports equipment, tractors, and dish soap manufacturers better if they were all part of one larger corporation.  Finally, there were the hyper-growth, new technology firms that attracted investors whose money could be used for more ambitious growth.  One might see, for example, a computer leasing firm making a bid to take over a major money center bank.

The market itself was beginning to attract the interest of many new, small investors as Wall Street became more of a national institution.  It wasn't prepared for this new role.  Clearing paper share certificates became a backroom nightmare.  Customers accounts were in disarray and the problem was growing.  In an attempt to stem the problem, brokerages were to close one day a week and not solicit new business.  In a story familiar to anyone acquainted with the growth of synthetic MBS until 2008, the firms could not resist the additional profit in new accounts - and churning those accounts - in an era of fixed, high commissions.

As the economy began to slow in 1969, the brokerages took in less income.  Many had lived with almost fictional capital assets and failures in several brokerages, including some of the largest houses, began to stress the NYSE.  (There was, as yet, no Security Investors Protection Corporation - SIPC -  to insure investors' accounts.)  As share prices sagged, the performance of the hot-handed gunslingers seem to cool.  This bears out John Kenneth Galbraith's aphorism that "genius is a rising market."   It could be seen that by the end of 1970, actual performance over the decade for many hot hands had been nil.  The synergy of the conglomerates and their stock prices evaporated.  That synergy proved to be only the result of accounting manipulation made possible by acquiring firms with lower price to earnings multiples.  The Dow Jones index which had touched 1,000 in 1966 wouldn't return to that value until nearly the end of 1972.

By the end of the decade, despite all the pain of growth and transition, Wall Street was something new.  It had become integral to American life in a way it hadn't been before.  Where it was once a spectator sport, it now held pensions and individual savings that would make it critical to more households.  To be more a part of the life of many Americans, however, would mean that the slumps and bubbles that seem an inevitable part of markets would have more that an academic impact for the average citizen than in times past.  This may be the reason, more than simply because they are in recent memory, why the crashes of 1970, 1987, 2000, and 2008 had such an impact in ways that the 1954 or 1962 slides did not.      

This book has been re-issued in the Wiley Investment Classics series and it very much deserves to be.  It is strongly recommended because it covers a market era that is usually overlooked. 

Monday, August 15, 2016

The Match King - Frank Portnoy (Profile Books Ltd, 2009)



In a time of economic exuberance, even sophisticated investors, bankers, and brokerages were not too interested in where the dividends came from.  This is the story in detail of one of the greatest collapses - or was it fraud - of the 20th century.  [364.1680924]

It would seem that every book about the 1929 Wall Street crash makes passing reference to Ivar Kreuger and the collapse of his "Match Empire."  Although, his name is often teamed in such histories with those of Samuel Insull and Charles Ponzi, there is a critical difference.  Ponzi's scheme was limited and had no hope of being a legitimate investment; Insull's network of utilities and holding companies was merely regional; Kreuger built an international enterprise that was capable of lending funds to sovereign governments, that developed new financial tools (such as nonvoting Class B shares and convertible debentures), and that could rival the House of Morgan.  Ivar Kreuger and his match monopolies were in a different league - almost appropriately the same league as the South Sea Bubble.

This book is more than a recounting of some facts; it is the biography of an enigma.  How much about Kreuger's life or business dealings was real?  how much was sleight of hand?  Further, why would a old banking house like Lee Higginson participate so willingly in raising funds for International Match or the firm of Kreuger and Toll when they really knew so little about the business?  How could the most cursory of financial data be trusted as a guide to understanding a complex firm?  Here is a look at how financial markets operated before requirements for audited financial statements or registration of securities became standard.  In good times, as many subsequent market booms have shown, investors do not really want to look too carefully under the hood of the engine that is generating profits.  It did not seem to trouble investors that their investments paid a 25% dividend on money lent to Germany for 6%.  In  the absence of solid accounting data, funds could be raised and shifted among a number of off-balance sheet vehicles and firms without the knowledge of investors or the firms' bankers.  Today, an investor will study the 10-Ks and 10-Qs of prospective investments.  These tools only came into being after, and partly because of, the collapse in 1932 of Kreuger's empire once the search for remedies for the losses that all came with the end of the 1920s bull market began. 

After every collapse, there is a desperate search for a single, simple cause or villain to blame and widespread human greed or blindness is never really an acceptable explanation because it spreads guilt too broadly - it might include ourselves.  Although the International Match shares held their value for almost two years after the crash of most other share prices, when they fell, they became the focus of blame.  Suddenly, the now-dead Kreuger could not defend himself against harsh, self-interested accusations.  Some of these charges are believable.  (The forged Italian treasury bills that Kreuger had used argue that.)  Time, however, would reveal that many of the assets of International Match and its associated companies were genuine.  The author leaves his conclusions mixed: part blameworthy, part exculpatory for Ivar Kreuger.  That is, perhaps, the most satisfactory approach.

This book is recommended with the note that some readers may wish to reconstruct some basic accounting statements to better understand the whole.

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